http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com

Fingers crossed for Branchless Banking via STK or SMS !

@the solid industry exp or for a success story . funny

@the publicizing and telling ppl that nobody is doing enough , i think farzal didnt stop at that and that ammana is working along those lines and that his later post did identify that he has done his research in the field.

@ the success story.
i think its much more interesting to watch one story unfold rather than read it at the end. Keeps you closer to reality

@ statistics.
Pakistan has one of the highest penetration of cellphones. so m commerce is the next step. why is it taking so late is something to be looked into. maybe the setup need a little restructuring. but looking at farzal’s forecasts i would say we are sitting on the edge of a spike. do we have enough support for the m-revolution to make it work. are we looking at enough business opportunist who will capitalize on it and make it work.
the ppl being illiterate is something that can always be overcome.you always have voice enabled msgs if not text and text msgs in local languages.
we are looking at opportunities to make things happen not at reasons to say this cant happen. (this is one of the core values of entrepreneurship).

@farzal dabbing himself in so many areas
this is globalization. you are supposed to know everything to survive. and i think his focus has remained economics and IT. his exposure is vast and that gives him enough arsenal to handle different startups and solving real problems .

@farzal as a teacher in IBA,
i think his course material was more up to date than any other teacher’s. Esp when you are teaching a dynamic subject as ecomm whr the whole landscape chnges in the course of a semester. He thought us to look at the picture, identify the problem and come up with a solution. and not to turn away from it sayin it cant happen. you learn skills, if you dont have them, you gather resource if you lack them and you wait for the environment variables to be favorable to be successful.

@mobilink VAS svcs not being utilized. they arent being utilized. that is true. a lot of svc being offered yet ppl arent using them as much as they should be.

@the discussion.
it should move towards what will happen in the next 12- 18 months and how can we exponentiate the growth.

@twitter being called. Please. do call them. =)

@jehan ara. You look lovely in the interview.

OK, so here are some predictions on the M-Commerce space will play out in the next 12 to 18 months. These are based on my last 2 years of interaction with over 20 banks, 4 GSM Carriers and SBP.

I hope Asif Sahab gives me some credit for having some practical knowledge.

A little bit of cautious innovation from Financial sector, and a LOT of great stuff from GSM carriers.

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1. About 5 Banks will launch some kind of a Mobile Payment interface, allowing inter-bank payments and bill payments.

1a. These services will work mostly for GPRS based phones with Java apps, and target the 5-10% Banked sector of Pakistan.

1b. Intra-bank payments will most likely not be available initially but added after wards.

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2. At least 2 Telcos, maybe 3 or 4, will launch the more exciting Branchless Banking products. These will be the real innovations.

2a. Service will work either with existing SIM or require SIM replacement. Text messages and SIM menu will be used, as opposed to complicated GPRS and Java apps.

2b. The services will attract the banked and unbanked. From milk collection centres to Courier Locations. financial services will be finally available outside of Branches.

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3. Warid, Wateen & Bank Al-Falah trip will play out something. They SHOULD. they have the PERFECT eco-system available within their parent group and do not need to do acquisitions like Telenor had to.

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4. One of the larger Telcos will have a major product for web-based checkouts promoting E-Commerce in Pakistan. It could be PTCL, Wateen or Mobilink.

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5. Telenor will launch services for farmers – letting them earn more for their hard work.

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I can name the exact banks and telcos for points #1 & #2 but choosing not to, for now. Perhaps a blog entry or CIO article to discuss this whole scenario is the next step.

1. Thank you for the continued commenting. This is exactly the kind of conversation threads we need to have more of.
2. I think Farzal’s articles state that he was referring to figures from the State Bank and not the PTA. Stats which actually reflect ground realities points to transparency and the real picture, which may not put some companies or authorities in the right kind of light. 90+ million SIMs sold is meaningless unless every telecom companies will reveal an exact number of active SIMs; the total # of internet users is irrelevant unless every company reveals how many are active and how many people per household actually make use of a connection. Whether it is software licenses or anything else, the numbers are always kept as top secret. However, with things like MNP for an e-enabled platform, telecom companies, for example, will have to share SOME data. You have a valid point that if the case FOR m-commerce is so strong, then why hasn’t anyone been able to garner ANY success, and I think a lot of people are asking the same question though I don’t think anyone really knows the answer since we don’t have a culture of holding people or authorities accountable for (or lack thereof) their actions.

On a side note for this point, we’re trying to organize a discussion with the State Bank Governor upon his return to try and find out where the bottlenecks are, and have the stakeholders in place so we can identify what is holding us back.

3. Yes.. The TPS story was a great one. We all have our methods of measuring success. I’d argue and I’m sure Jehan Ara will agree with me, that we’re trying to showcase the diversity in our industry. The industry has success stories and they will be featured, but if we don’t give a leg up to the Small Fries – people who can inspire, motivate or lead, very soon – we’ll run out of successes AND stories.

Again, many thanks for stopping by!

Just to clarify, I have no personal grudge with Farzal infact really envy him of attending such institutions of international repute. However, gathering statistics from multiple sources, making mcommerce models and saying everyone is just sleeping and not doing anything in the e/m commerce area is completely incorrect.

For Farzal’s information/clarification, local industry has really moved on from SMS alerts now. Everyone within the industry knows the difference between SMS alerts and pure SMS an/or mobile banking. There are number of initiatives underway at banking as well telco level to come up with a wide scale mobile payments setup. So as per your comments in the interview its not that no one is realizing the importance of mpayments, the crust of the matter is that HOW TO MAKE IT SUCCESSFULL? which model and/or service is that foolproof which can easily get go-aheads from all government agencies including SBP, PTA.

Commenting on the statistics you’ve shared that 40% of customers at present use SMS. I would seriously like to know the authenticity and source of this information. Because based on my 5 years experience in the VAS industry of Pakistan, it cannot be as high as 40%. Again, my point here is that in Pakistan unfortunately statistics generally do not reflect the on ground realities. Just an example, PTA states total mobile subscribers stand at somewhere 91million but infact these are subscriptions not subscribers which means that the 57.5% teledensity claim is also falsified.

The reason of giving these examples is to highlight my point that if someone is basing his business model on these figures then he/she might not be able to get desired success stories.

It’s been 4 years with g-cash from phillipines came to Pakistan and it was the first time a seminar was held on m-payments/banking. even after 4 years still nothing concrete has happened in this area, WHY? because statistics are not reflecting the right ground realities!

I have read Farzal’s articles in CIO as well but would stand by my stance that if someone comes from outside and starts talking about an unexplored opportunity claiming that everyone else in Pakistan is not doing enough is wrong!

For @rabia and @jehan ara, my point is that you should invite young professionals on such forums however please check if there is a success story associated with these professionals. Anyone commenting on mcommerce or the slow progress on it should atleast have some mcommerce success story to authenticate his comments. For example, your interview of Shahzad of TPS was brilliant because TPS guys made a success story and it was good to listen to them, their strategy and how they did it.

I wonder why Jawed Karim was invited to speak at University of Illinois in 2006 when he had less than 10 years of industry experience.

On a serious note, I think ITLOW is not just about highly focused technical talks but it is an unique kind of show where we get to know about bright individuals who really make the difference in our industry. And Farzal is surely one of them. I love the way Jehan Ara interacts with guests and this is how we we exactly know how people achieve success in their life.

Positive criticism should always be welcomed but I’d request everyone here to not take negative criticism and personal attacks seriously. CIO Pakistan is providing a great platform here. Lets utilize it positively and do something good for our community.